Saturday, May 28, 2011

To see is to believe 眼見為信


In my April 27th blog, I showed some photos that I did for one of my digital photography class assignments – The Best Liar.  Readers who have knowledge of the events or the subjects involved in the photos could tell easily these were faked and might focus on how well the photos were created which was the primary goal of the assignment.  The uninformed or less suspecting ones may however be led to believe or consider the photos are real and the events did take place. 

Considering we all have seen way too often documents including photos and videos that were fabricated or manipulated, perhaps we need to revert back to the old idea of “to see is to believe” 眼見為信?  But would that be sufficient?  Is it possible that what you “see” and what I “see” could be different?  If so, then is experience and reality only perceived and not absolute?  How do we then determine if an event did occur and something does exist?  How do we form our perceived reality any way?  How do our brains work with visual and/or other stimuli?  

Scientists and philosophers have been pursuing answers to these questions for a very long time at different levels with distinct methods and tools.  I will try to stay in or close to the realm of science although improved understandings in science do have ramifications on some of the debates of issues at the boundaries of philosophy, religion, and science.  

The mechanical parts of visual systems of animals are more straightforward to study.  We do know a lot about how eyes work optically and physically from the single lens systems (such as human’s, bird’s, and whales’) to multi-lens systems (such as insect’s).  We know enough about the process of sensing of light and propagation of signals through nerve system to particular parts of brain to create devices like night vision goggles and cameras successfully.  Further, efforts in creating “artificial eyes” have been attempted to restore visions of the blinds with encouraging results at a few research institutes.  However, good photographers and graphical designers know that human brains can work with eyes in some integral and adaptive manner to enhance our experience/perception including contrast, color, etc. depending on our interest (mind?) and the scene.  No camera can possibly reproduce such a sophisticated functionality today. 

Worse; much more elaborate manipulations and adaptations can take place without our awareness.  The recent research by the prominent psychologist Daniel Simons showed that our perception can be influenced or distracted significantly such that we are “not seeing something that is there”.  That is, sometimes some of us may not even “see” certain obvious events that happen right in front of our eyes!  I am sure you would swear that you had such an experience with your love ones.  But Professor Simons’ famous experiment (that led to his 2010 book The Invisible Gorilla) revealed the surprisingly strong effect of in-attentional blindness (that he defined as “the failure to notice unusual and salient events in their visual world when attention is otherwise engaged and the events are unexpected.”)  Can you believe that roughly half of the people participated in his experiments did not “see” a gorilla walking through the scene where several people pass basketballs to each other.  By the way, “not seeing” does not necessarily translate to “no impact” as many studies of the effects of subliminal messaging have demonstrated the opposite.

While the “invisible gorilla” phenomena may be surprising, very few people question the results and plausible explanations.  In fact, once told or forewarned, no one would miss the appearance of the gorilla.  The flip side is much more controversial and puzzling.  Yes, I am talking about the phenomena of “seeing something that is not there.”  Of course, there are two distinct categories of such phenomena.  One is magic that is a clever and intentional use of devices, and/or the property of optical reception and perception of human to make believe, thus to entertain us.  Here is a short clip of one of the most watched magic shows at the 2010 Chinese New Year’s Eve Show on CCTV of China.  In the show, the renowned young magician Liu Qian 劉謙 from Taiwan pushed his right hand right through a glass table to pick up some coins from underneath.


Since it was advertised as a magic show, no one would think it was actually happening and everyone was asking how he did it in awe.  Throughout the human history however, there have been numerous reported and unexplained sightings of phenomena which have been broadly called ESP (Extra-Sensory Perception).  This is the second category - the curious and controversial phenomena of “seeing something that is not there.”

Some of these phenomena turned out to be frauds or pranks.  Some were explained away as one developed better knowledge of the circumstance and/or science.  More often, these stories persisted and new ones continue to pop up which beg for explanations, either affirmative or negative.  All these phenomena have one thing in common however: none of them have ever been successfully verified by independent researchers, or repeated in rigorous and controlled environment for a variety of reasons.

A recent case that drew a lot of attention in Taiwan and China was the Finger Reading Study by Professor Si-Chen Lee李嗣涔and his collaborators since early 90s.  Professor Lee did his early research in semiconductors and received his Ph.D. from Stanford University.  He has been a Professor of Electrical Engineering at the National Taiwan University, the most prestigious higher education institution in Taiwan, since 1982 and was appointed the President of the university in 2005. He became interested in developing better understanding of the popular Chinese traditional Qigong applying modern sciences in late 1980s.  One thing led to another, he ended up in conducting some parapsychology investigations and has given popular public talks (in mandarin) about his experiments and findings in early 2000’s in Taiwan.

Basically, Lee reported the following amazing and unexpected results in these talks: 1)it is possible to train youngsters between age of 7 and 13 to “read” two digit numbers and Chinese characters in color with fingers (that is, by touch of those figures written on a piece of paper).  Lee reported an average of 24% “success” rate was achieved with 152 youngsters who completed a 4 days by 2 hour training session held annually from 1996 to 2003.  While he did not clarify what was considered a “success”, the conclusion appeared to have been drawn from applying statistical theory of (p-value) hypothesis testing that the occurrence of correct answers during the experiments is very unlikely due to random guesses.  Professor Lee thus suggested that such a paranormal capability is real and can be trained.  2) Lee reported that his research team was able to communicate with a spiritual character about specific questions and topics through trained “ESP-capable” test subjects (according to later investigatory reports, the reported experiments were all conducted with Ms. 高橋舞, the most “capable” kid from the earlier finger reading training).  The send (from the test subject to the spirit character) channel address has a web URL like syntax.  The received message was displayed visually on a virtual screen seen by the “ESP-capable” test subject (similar to the notion of the “third eye”). 

Are these for real? Doesn’t it remind you of anecdotal stories of physic in the west or靈媒,占童 in China? Does it prove in any way the existence of other “universes” or spiritual world(s) as Professor Lee and some believe? Does it have anything to do with the unifying theory that some physicist are developing?

Despite his enthusiasm and scientific/engineering trainings, Professor Lee has not fared any better than other researchers in the field of parapsychology that attempts to bring scientific disciplines to an otherwise mysterious experience.  With the promising results of the finger reading experiments, Yung-Jong Shiah 夏允中, a researcher of Professor Lee’s team, went on to obtain his Ph.D. degree in Psychology at the well-known Koestler Parapsychology Unit of the University of Edinburgh, England. From his peer-reviewed publications, Professor Shiah (who is now on the faculty of Psychology Department of Kaohsiung Medical University in Taiwan) did not succeed in validating the results in more controlled and rigorous experiments with a number of school children in England.

All in all, I don’t doubt the authenticity of some of those reports that there have been individuals or a group of individuals who experienced or “see” certain phenomena.  It is a big leap of faith however to conclude something is real when it cannot be reproduced consistentely or independently verified.  Professor Lee appears to have gone overboard and got ahead of himself in the hope of drawing interests of others, considering that he had not published peer-reviewed scientific papers beyond literary accounts of the experiments and that he referred to the discredited torsion field as a plausible explanation and basis. 

Zhuang Zi 莊子 warned us over 2300 years ago that it is dangerous when one hopes to comprehend the infinite universe with one’s finite understandings 吾生也有涯,而知也無涯。 以有涯隨無涯,殆已!《莊子·內篇·養生主第三》.How many times have we seen people got confused models and theory with the reality?  The progression of Newton’s universal gravitation and the three laws of motion, Einstein’s relativity theory, and the newly developed String theory, M-theory, Holographic Principle, etc, are small steps that helped us to imagine and to expand our understandings of the universe(s) but they are no substitutes for the real thing and will continue to be revised.

The late Martin Gardner, a famous American science writer and mathematician, wrote on the June 26, 1980 issue of New York Review of Books in a response to a letter by four renowned scientists who defended parapsychology against the harsh criticism of John Wheeler (who called it a pseudoscience).  Gardner started his letter by pointing out that “One may have the highest respect for the signers of the above letter—one of them, Brian Josephson, is a Nobel Prize winner—at the same time recognizing that knowledge of physics no more qualifies a scientist to evaluate psychic claims than does knowledge of chess or medieval Latin.”   He concluded his letter by saying that “If the four investigations listed in their letter are the best evidence they can muster for the reality of psi, their letter is a sad reinforcement of what John Wheeler had to say.” calling it a “pathological science” and a “pretentious pseudo science”. 

Unfortunately nothing seems to have changed after 30 years from the publication of the above exchange and there is still no evidence that any of the reported paranormal phenomena could be reproduced, especially by disbelievers, much less any convincing explanations.  It is also not likely an alternative and effective methodology will be developed any time soon for the examination and discussion of ESP if (unspecified) different rules apply as many believers had argued.  We continue to be trapped in the contradiction that we are hoping to use our existing experience and knowledge to explain events that are supposedly taking place outside our universe.

Let me pause here and go back to my own reality before I get lost!

Monday, May 16, 2011

The Best of Taiwan


From time to time, friends and family members asked me for suggestions on where to go and what to do when they visit Taiwan.  While it is close to impossible to address different needs and preferences, I thought I would offer a summary list, completed with reference links that could help one formulate his/her own itinerary before delving into detailed tour guides or making arrangement with a travel service.

Before we start, it is useful to get oriented in both geographically and historically.  Taiwan is a large tropical/subtropical island in East Asia about 100 miles southeast of mainland China. It is within 3-4 hours of flight time from Japan and Korea at north, and 1 hour from Hong Kong at its southeast.  The island is about 1.5 times of the size of New Jersey or one quarter of the size of the New York State.  The longest and widest parts of Taiwan are measured to about 250 miles by 100 miles.  It is mountainous with over 100 peaks rising 3,000 meters or 10,000 ft or more within tens of miles from the shore at sea level. Taiwan currently has a population of 23 million (New York and New Jersey have approximately 19 and 9 million people respectively) with a quarter of them residing in the greater metropolitan area of Taipei, the capital city at the north of the island. 

For thousands of years, Taiwan have been inhabited with Taiwanese aborigines who are Austronesian peoples.  While there had been sparse visits and settlements in the area by Chinese across the Taiwan strait, the island first attracted the attention of European colonial powers when Portuguese sighted it in 1544 and named it Formosa (means "Beautiful”).  Dutch started their settlements in southern Taiwan in 1624 and later made Anping (a part of today’s Tainan city) the colonial capital.  Two years later, Spanish landed and occupied northern Taiwan.  The Spanish Formosa did not last however.  It fell to Dutch’s hand who took control of the whole island in 1642.   In 1662, 18 years after the fall of Ming Dynasty of China, the former Ming commander Zheng Chenggong 鄭成功 defeated the Dutch and claimed Taiwan as the base in a attempt to reclaim mainland China and restore the Ming Dynasty. The name Taiwan is believed to have been originated from the Taiwanese aborigines who resided then in Anping area.

In 1683, Taiwan fell into Qing Dynasty’s hand and was formally annexed and eventually became a province of China in 1885.  It was ceded to Japan a decade later however when Qing Dynasty was defeated by Japan in First Sino-Japanese War.  By then, there were about 3 million people in Taiwan with the majority being Han immigrants from mainland China occupying coastal lands. It was returned to China (governed by the Nationalist Party) in 1945 when Japan lost and surrendered at the conclusion of WWII.  A short four years later in 1949, Chiang Kai-shek’s Nationalist government retreated to Taiwan when Communist Party won the civil war and overtook the mainland and formed the People’s Republic of China.

In the subsequent 60 years, Taiwan has evolved and transformed into a significant economic power and one of the most developed countries in Asia with a head start out of the involuntary modernization through the earlier Japanese colonization.  Yet, it has managed to retain its root in Chinese culture which was further strengthened and infused with imperial treasures, the elites and survivors-alike through the exile of the Nationalist government.  Indeed there is no better place to see and to experience more completely what a modern instantiation of Chinese culture can be.  Today, it is possible to do a visit of Taiwan in less than a week or just the Taipei area in say 3 days by escorted tours.  However if you’d like to explore places in your own pace and customize to your preferences, it is possible to do so on your own or with helps from various travel services.

Chances are you will arrive at Taiwan by plane at the TaoYuan Chiang Kai-Shek International Airport which is less than one hour away from Taipei, the capital city with a taxi/limo fare at about $40-50 dollars (or around 1300 NT dollars).  Note no tipping is expected for any services including taxi and for those who do (like in some restaurants), service charge is explicitly included in the bill that saves you from the anxiety of determining what is a reasonable tip.  Of course, I am assuming that you have already found a place to stay before you depart.  Like most fully developed modern cities, Taipei offers a wide range of lodging from apartment, hostels, to 5-star International chain hotels that you can find from many of the Internet traveling services.  What perhaps less known is that some of the universities do offer hotel and guest house services on campus in good value. 

When in Taipei, you can take advantage of its wonderful and convenient public transportation system.  Its excellent Metro Taipei and extensive bus routes and frequent bus services makes possible for one explore most of the spots listed below (often without transfers) safely.  If you don’t mind to spend a little more money and want to cut down the time of travel, you can always hail a metered-taxi on the street – one would be available almost instantly in most parts of the city during regular hours.  

For interesting places to see or things to do in Taipei and neighboring area, a good online source in English (and Chinese) is the taipeitravel.net maintained by the Department of Information and Tourism of the city government. Below are my picks grouped in geographic proximity so that you can visit each of them in one trip within a half-day or one day journey. Some of them are within walking distance to each other such that you can do people watching and window shopping as you get to the next stop. Many of them are also accessible by Metro.

1.      Southern, Central and Western Districts: Chiang Kai-shek Memorial Park, 2-28 Peace Park/National Taiwan Museum, Xi-Men Ding, Taipei Botanical Garden, Longshan Temple & Hua-Xi Night Market/Snake Alley
2.      Northern Districts: National Palace Museum, Chiang Kai-Shek Shilin Residence, Shilin 士林night market
3.      Northern Districts and excursion to DanShiu: Mattyrs' Shrine 臺北忠烈祠 (there is an hourly changing of guard ceremony), Taipei Fine Arts Museum, DanShui Old Street and ferry terminal area, Danshui Fort San Domingo
4.      Eastern Districts: Taipei 101 (one of the tallest building in the world, shops, restaurants, with a panoramic view of city on the top floor), nearby shopping malls, book stores, movie theaters.
5.      Full Day excursions
·        Historical towns and Ceramic and Pottery arts and crafts: Yingge pottery street, pottery factories and museum, Sansia Ching Shui Tsu Shih Temple and Old Street
6.      Overnight excursions from Taipei
·        JiaoSi Hot Spring and YiLan city

Leaving Taipei city, you can explore the rest of the island in one to two weeks on your own or with assistance by travel services without escorted large group tours. In the following, I describe a clockwise around the island itinerary that allows you to explore Taiwan in-depth by staying 2-3 nights at each cluster.  You can reverse the direction and/or go straight to any of the cluster and skip some of them if you’d like.

·        Cluster A: Take a train or flight to HuaLien city in eastern part of Taiwan.  Stay at HuaLien or TaRoKo Gorge National Park to explore the city and the neighborhood.  TaRoKo Gorge National Park is one the most beautiful parks that offers abundant hiking opportunities to see the marble and limestone mountains with streams cutting through them.  You can also soak yourself in natural outdoor hot spring or rafting on the nearby Siouguluan River.
·        Cluster B:Take a train to TaiTung City in southeast of Taiwan.  If you have some extra money to spend, you may want to stay at the one of the nicer ZhiBen resorts like the Hotel Royal 老爺大酒店 to relax in upscale hot springs and water park.  Take your time to tour the neighboring towns and enjoy activities like GuanShan biking tour 關山環鎮自行車道.  Take a ferry or short flight to either Green Island or Orchid Island (LangYu) and spend at least one night there.  These two islands are small enough that you can rent a bike or scooter or hike around the island.  The latter offers a unique opportunity to visit the aboriginal Yami village and see their arts/crafts.  The former used to house political prisoners by the Nationalist government before martial law was lifted in Taiwan.
·        Cluster C: Take a train/bus to Kenting, a seaside town near the southern tip of Taiwan. When you are tired of the beach activities and water sports like snorkeling and diving, you can visit the nearby Kenting National Park and see tropical vegetation and the traces of undersea, or spend an evening in town strolling down the bustling main street and check out the night market and bars.  You can also make a loop around the southern tip to see fascinating landscapes including coral tablelands, limestone caves, sand rivers and sand waterfalls etc. while stopping by the fortified Erluanbi light house and the HenChun Old Town 恆春古城 before returning to Kenting.  A little northwest of HenChun town center off the shore is the National Museum of Marine Biology & Aquarium.  South of the museum is a popular scenic spot for seeing the famous GuangShan Sunset 關山夕照.
·        Cluster D: Heading north by bus from Kenting, you reach KaoHsiung City, the 2nd largest city of the island in 2 hours.  When in Kaohsiung, you can reach pretty much all the major attractions by KaoHsiung Rapid Transit (KRT), including Sizih Bay/Former British Consulate, Love River cruise and river bank cafes, Dream Mall, Dome of Light at the Formosa Boulevard Station, and the 2009 Kaohsiung World Game Stadium designed by the famous Japanese architect Toyo Ito.  North of Kaohsiung is the Tainan, the oldest city of Taiwan and the Dutch colonial capital in Taiwan four hundred years ago.  You can visit the historical sites such as AnPing Fort, ChiKan Tower, Eternal Golden Castle, Confucius Temple, and the Flowers Night market.
·        Cluster E: Take Taiwan High Speed Rail to Taichung station and then a bus to Sun Moon Lake, the largest lake in Taiwan.  You can explore the lake area by bus or bike around the lake and take a boat tour.  You can also take a bus to Puli to visit the town and the nearby Chun Tai Chang Monastery by taxi.  Traveling back to the Taichung high speed rail station by bus, you can catch a train to return to Taipei.

When traveling to Taiwan, the first and last thing you should be concerned about is food.  It is the last thing you would worry about especially in Taipei, because there is a such a wide range of choices from any number of the inexpensive but delicious Chinese eateries around the corner to many of the gourmet or upscale Chinese and international restaurants.  It is the first thing you worry about because there are simply way too many choices in any dimension you can think of!  Here are a few suggestions for you to start with if you want to try some of the very best but reasonably-priced Chinese specialities that are not easily available elsewhere including China or Hong Kong.  

·        Tien Hsiang Lo 天香樓in Landis Hotel亞都麗緻 serves a upscale delicate and creative HangChow (Shanghai region) cuisine
·        Dian Shui Lou 點水樓serves excellent Shanghai regional cuisine don’t miss the Jade Buns 絲瓜小籠包 (filled with minced Taiwanese Okra and shrimp)
·        Sung Chu Restaurant 宋廚菜館 is famous for its Peking duck that one person can’t finish alone.  You can try to drop in but chance of getting seated without advanced reservation is slim to none.
·        The Peng’s 彭園 One of the best and most creative Hunan cuisine found anywhere at a good price
·        Ding Tai Fun 鼎泰豐 Most people come here for one thing - Steamed pork dumplings小籠包 but other entrees are excellent too
·        Beef Noodle Shop 川味老張牛肉麵店  Yes, you are here to have a bowl of delicious beef soup noodle and hope to run into Jackie Chan
·        Ice Monster冰館its Jumbo Mango Ice is a wonderful desert treat with fresh mango in hot days which is most of the time in the year

Of course, without advanced planning, you may not be in the neighborhood of these restaurants during your tours and visit.  That is not a problem.  To begin with, top tourist spots outsourced their in-house food services to famous restauranteurs (for example, the Silks Palace 故宮晶華 at the National Palace Museum).  The easiest way to find clean, inexpensive but tasty food with a large number of choices is the food court in large department stores and in the main Taipei Train Station.  Night market is an excellent place for bar-food hopping if you are more adventurous and want to try many of the unique local light delights and snacks.  If you are a vegetarian or like to try some tasty vegetarian food, you may want to go to some of the vegetarian restaurants such as the popular Spring Natural Vegetarian Restaurant 春天素食 that offers an impressive array of choices in buffet style. 

Bon Voage and Bon Appetit!





Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Born in New Jersey


My second semester digital photography class is coming to an end.  Unlike the first semester where more focus was on the basics and topics where one would do a lot of shooting exercises and rudimentary editing techniques, this semester’s emphasis has been more on thematic combined with technical dimensions such as studio lighting, night photography, fantasy self-portrait, etc.  The latter is particular entertaining.  Below are the submissions I entered for the homework assignment “Best Liar”.




We also stretched our imaginations with extremely long or short exposure to capture scenes where human eyes/brains fail to notice easily.  An example is the paired photos on the right where I used movement of water drips to depict the progression of time. 

The grand finale of the class is a photo book where one is free to create a book from scratch with whatever he/she wants.  That may sound easy but turns out to be more challenging than what I thought; the least of it was the mechanical details of making covers and binding a book.  For one, it is easy to fall into the trap of having a neat idea but can’t get enough satisfactory photos to fill the design.  After struggling for two weeks, I finally converged to the following idea and created a book entitled Born in New Jersey.    

It was inspired by the 1984 all time hit song Born in the U.S.A. of Bruce Springsteen, one of the most famous New Jersey sons.   Below are the lyrics and a Youtube video of it by Bruce Springsteen & The E Street Band (of his Jersey buddies) in Paris on 29th June 1985.


Born in the U.S.A.
Born down in a dead man's town
The first kick I took was when I hit the ground
You end up like a dog that's been beat too much
'Til you spend half your life just covering up

[chorus:]
Born in the U.S.A.
Born in the U.S.A.
Born in the U.S.A.
Born in the U.S.A.

I got in a little hometown jam
And so they put a rifle in my hands
Sent me off to Vietnam
To go and kill the yellow man

[chorus]

Come back home to the refinery
Hiring man says "Son if it was up to me"
I go down to see the V.A. man
He said "Son don't you understand"

[chorus]

I had a buddy at Khe Sahn
Fighting off the Viet Cong
They're still there, he's all gone
He had a little girl in Saigon
I got a picture of him in her arms

Down in the shadow of the penitentiary
Out by the gas fires of the refinery
I'm ten years down the road
Nowhere to run, ain't got nowhere to go

I'm a long gone Daddy in the U.S.A.
Born in the U.S.A.
I'm a cool rocking Daddy in the U.S.A.
Born in the U.S.A.

Here is the resulting photo book, my final project for my Digital Photography II class.  The photos are displayed in pairs and in the order of opposing pages as they appear in order in the book (not in size necessarily).  Hopefully you can imagine the narratives and story without more text.  As a hint, the photos were primarily taken at Liberty State Park, Atlantic City, and Jersey Shore beaches.  The book is obviously not perfect but it is another step and learning in my pursuit of arts of photography.   Talk to you soon!























































































Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Madadayo (“Not Yet”)


Just watched the wonderful 1993 Japanese movie Madadayo that means “not (ready) yet” in English.  It is the last film by one of the greatest film directors/writers Akira Kurosawa  黒澤 明 who brought world’s attention to Japanese films 60 years ago with his classics like Rashomon in 1950 and Seven Samurai in 1954.   The film Madadayo is based on the true story of Professor Hyakken Uchida and focuses on his retirement life after age 60.  Through the tidbits of little things in life and the annual birthday parties his former students organized for him, the film explores an old man’s attitude towards to life and death as he kept his humor, perseverance, compassion, and humility with the love and support of his wife and former students.

It was not a coincidence that I rented this movie from Netflix although I first got interested in it because at first sight, it is a movie about a teacher and his students.  After watching the movie and in reflection,  I realized that I seem to have done more things to get myself “ready” since my retirement, starting first by getting our wills, living wills and estate planning matter in order.   My ears and mind seem to naturally become more sensitive to news, statistics, stories, photos, music and literature related to matters on health, aging, and the eventual death.  I suppose before retirement, I, like many others, was simply too pre-occupied with living?  We hardly have enough time just to take care of urgent issues and schedules to get ourselves through days, weeks and months ahead.  How much time and energy can one spend on things might not happen in decades?   In the same token, why would or should young folks be concerned with things that might not happen in half a century?

Several weeks ago, I bought and began reading the book A Widow’s Story: A Memoir by Joyce Carol Oates (JCO), after I heard an interview on NPR (National Public Radio).  JCO is a 72 years old renowned and prolific writer who has been teaching at Princeton University for sometimes.  She was just awarded 2010 U.S National Humanities Medal by President Obama.   Her writing is full of emotion and grace that one gets distracted by the beauty of her language even for dreadful events like death of her husband of 48 years.  As she detailed and cherished her delicate feelings and memory of life and death with her late husband Ray Smith’s, we can only began to appreciate and imagine the enormity of the challenges brought by the death upon those loved ones who have to endure and continue their lives.  That is exactly the reason I wanted to read the book – to understand better what my loved ones may feel and face and to make sure I can do my parts to lessen their struggles.

The only comforting thought is that a recent longevity study suggests widows’ longevity does not appear to be correlated with if the widow remarries. NPR’s Brian Lehrer Show recently interviewed Professors Howard Friedman and Leslie R. Martin, the authors of that study The Longevity Project: Surprising Discoveries for Health and Long Life from the Landmark Eight-Decade Study.  Their analysis was based on data collected by a Stanford University team started in 1921 by Dr. Lewis Terman.  The subjects were 1548 “high IQ” young students born in 1910 in San Francisco area. 

Among other things, the study found, perhaps not surprisingly, a strong correlation between longevity and social ties/networks (loners be careful!).  What is interesting however is the existence of gender difference.  For one, widowers who remarried tend to live longer while such correlation does not exist for widows!  The reason given is that men have more of their social ties from work and rely more on wives for their social ties.   Now I can appreciate more those anecdotal stories that many widows had little interest in getting married again.  Quoting an outspoken widowed mother of one of our friends, “why do I want to wash the dirty socks of a man, now I can finally enjoy my days traveling and playing Mahjong with my friends!

Joyce Carol Oates remarried to Professor Charles Gross of the Psychology Department and Neuroscience Institute at Princeton in early 2009, a year after her husband’s death.

Back to the meat and potato business.  Like most, I had my shares of grieves when family members and closed ones had serious health issues or passed away.  For the cases of my parents and my sister-in-law’s father, there were significant expenditures of long term cares even though they lived in Taiwan where the care cost is much cheaper than in U.S.  The concern for the financial impact prompted us to look into the possibility of purchasing an increasingly talked-about Long Term Care insurance.

According to the agent we spoke to and the insurance company literature, close to 1 in 2 people in U.S. ended up needing some form of long term care for some period of time before they pass away.   This ratio is probably increasing as we speak as we tend to stretch our lives with modern medicines and medical technologies.  Clearly such a high rate of occurrence suggests more needs for financial preparedness.  Unfortunately, it also suggests that there is a much more limited risk pooling effect that tends to result in higher premium for such an insurance policy.  Worse yet, reasonable insurance for catastrophic events don’t seem to exist.

I also learned some interesting data and statistics such as the average length of use of any kind of long term care (at home, assisted living, and nursing care) is about 2.5 years and the average length of stay at nursing care facility is about 6 months (I guess a majority of them never returned after the stay?!)   For us who live in a high cost area like New Jersey (and for the matter, California), it turns out that for at home care, it runs about $20-$25/hr with a minimum of 4 hrs.  For assisted living, it costs about $4-$6K/month.  For nursing homes, it costs about $6-$9K/month.  You can do the arithmetic to know any non-trivial length of needs can make a huge dent to one’s nestegg.  The good news is that Medicare (for those beyond 65 years old, for now) covers 100% for the first 20 days and 75% for the subsequent 80 days after each incident.  If your asset beyond 1 car and 1 house is gone or used up, Medicaid assistance is available but don’t expect 4 star services.  Dollars and cents aside, the biggest emotional challenge is that such an event could put your loved ones and their loved ones in a difficult or conflicting position while trying to balance the financial burden with quality of care.

When all said and done, I figured that a better way to think of the Long Term Care insurance is to consider it a form of investment just like you buy stocks and bonds and mutual funds in your diversified portfolio.  The way many policies are formulated give rise to a distinct “use-it-or-lose-it” characteristics of the return on investment (or anti-return of investment). If you are “unlucky”, the annual premiums you paid (the “investment”) will generate payouts up to a contracted maximum amount (the best-case “return”).  If you (and your loved ones) are lucky, you could lose all your investments.   The net result is if you purchase such an insurance, it could provide an additional financial cushion for your loved ones.  The only question is if it is worth it.  Of course, you have other alternatives such as putting away the premium (or other amount) for the explicit purpose with a more predictable but likely smaller returns.

We don’t know yet if the insurance company consider us “insurable” and how much the actual premium will be.  It turns out that the Insurance Company we spoke to assess the risk rigorously.  They so far have done a phone interview with us by a registered nurse.  Among other things such as getting our health history, the nurse conducted some cognitive and short term memory tests over the phone but I already forgot many of the questions she had asked!

In all, I found all these exercises educational at the least.  The planning and preparations help me to put my mind more at ease, knowing I have done my best for my loved ones.  I have neatly put all documents and directives in place so that they can have the least amount of burden, anxiety, and stress whenever the eventuality strikes or when I can no longer think coherently or express myself.

Now I shall relax and enjoy more my retired life.   Before I go, I must ask you “Mahda-kai?” ("Are you ready?")